Friday NFL Picks: Week 9

Update: Week 9

Eller 6-8 (18-22-1)
Zack 5-9 (19-21-1)

Current Standings (after 2 weeks of picks)Zack: 14-12-1Eller: 12-14-1

So I hold a 2 game on lead on Captain Entertainment, which is nice. But as my Dad so eloquently stated this week – “14-14, huh. Well, don’t quit your day job.”

Yes indeed. Picking games against the spread is tough. But it’s also really fun. And somehow this competition with Eller is enough to keep me motivated, so unlike free online poker, this quasi-gambling is still just as enjoyable (and probably more so!) than if I had some real dough riding on these picks.

Also, any readers who want to post their own picks in the comments section, feel free to. I’ll even include you in the weekly update after the games are over.

Finally, there has been a discrepancy in the way that Eller and I are listing home teams. I was going CAPS and he was going bold. I’ll submit to the bold, so the following will have winners first, and home team in bold.

Rams (-3) OVER Chiefs
I pleaded with Larry Johnson last week to have a big week for my fantasy sanity. LJ didn’t disappoint, and with him in both of my leagues, it was a great week. How in the world can you pick this one? Both teams are up and down, but I’ll go with the Rams in the Dome, and hope for a big game from both RB’s.Bengals (+3) OVER Ravens
Toss up. Both teams at times look elite, and at other times look completely mediocre. Baltimore has stars on defense; Cincy has stars on offense. Overall, I think Cincy is a better team, even on the road. I think.Giants (-13) OVER Texans
The Giants are rolling right now. Their defense has been absolutely fabulous the past two weeks, and they should feast on David Carr and Co. Expect a lot of sacks, some serious turnovers, and a lot of Tiki Barber. Even giving up all those points, I think the G-men are going to blow this one wide open.Titans (+9.5) OVER Jaguars
Vince Young is an absolute freak. His Rose Bowl performance last year was the single most dominant performance I’ve ever witnessed by a college quarterback. That being said, he’s not yet a great NFL player, but the Titans have done better with him in there compared to Jack Daniels Collins. Jacksonville stole one at Philly last weekend, and to be honest, they don’t really drop off too much with ECU grad David Garrard at QB instead of Byron Leftwich. I think the Jags win, but the Titans keep it close and cover.Cowboys (-3) OVER Redskins
I still don’t think Dallas is that great – the Panthers completely laid down in the game last Sunday. And it’s impossible for me to pull for the Cowboys. But the Redskins just stink this year.Packers (+3) over Bills
Let’s recount the last two weeks:
Week 7 – Packers vs. Dolphins: aka Favre vs. Harrington. I pick Favre, Packers win.
Week 8 – Packers vs. Cardinals: aka Favre vs Leinart. I pick Favre, Packers win.So now, Week 9 – Packers vs. Bills: aka Favre vs. Losman.Any questions about why I’m picking the Packers? I didn’t think so.Saints (-1) OVER Bucs
Thanks New Orleans – I thought you had the karma working and had too much momentum for the Ravens to handle last week. I was wrong. Good thing Tampa is not Baltimore when it comes to D. New Orleans takes a close one on the road.Falcons (-5.5) over Lions
The past two weeks, Michael Vick Experience has been nothing short of amazing. I admit, I’m a sucker for Vick when he’s playing well. To me, there’s nothing more exciting than when he breaks free from the pocket, can run or pass, and chooses to tuck it down and slice up the open field. The only question I have is if he can keep it up – I think he does against a bad Lions team. Plus, domes are good for Vick & Co.Dolphins (+13.5) over Bears
Last week, Chicago was a huge favorite, so I took the points and the 49ers. Another brilliant move – until Chicago jumped out to a 41-0 halftime lead. I was burned once…now it’s time to get burned again. I hear that weather is going to be nasty in Chi-Town on Sunday. Give me the Dolphins and the points, and let’s hope for a miserable Rex Grossman this week.

Vikings (-5) over 49ers
Minny gets taken to the woodshed on Monday night by Tom Brady. Then presumably don’t get home until the wee hours of Tuesday morning. They take a day off to rest their bodies, get back to a short week or practice, then have to fly out to the West Coast. Their QB couldn’t quit throwing it to the other team (was that Brad Johnson or Cam Sexton out there). Chester Taylor couldn’t find a whole to run through. And their opponent is going to be ready to play after getting an even worse woodshedding put on them by the Bears.

I still pick the Vikings. Why? I have no idea.

San Diego (-12.5) over Browns
San Diego is obviously better. They’re at home. They’re giving a lot of points. But they’ll cover.

Broncos (+2.5) over Steelers
Potentially epic battle. Denver is coming off a thriller against Indy, and Pittsburgh is fighting for its identity right now. But the Broncos are getting points in this one? Against a team that is 2-5? Against a quarterback who can’t help himself from turning the ball over? Even if it means backing Jake Plummer, I’ll go with the Broncos and the points.

Colts (+3) over Patriots
Not only is this a battle between two of the best teams in the AFC. It’s also a battle of two of my newly minted rules for picking games.

  • Rule #1 – Don’t pick against Tom Brady and the Pats unless there’s irrefutable evidence as to why I should do so. What’s irrefutable? Like if the entire Pats team got food poisoning mid-week from a bad batch of Chunky Soup and then Belichick was forced to skip the game after contracting pneumonia while sleeping underneath an overpass. Then, I’d pick against them. I went against this strategy in Week 7 and paid for it.
  • Rule #2 – If the Colts have Peyton Manning playing QB and are getting any sort of points, you take them. Case closed. I did it last week and it worked, as Peyton put up 34 points on a Denver D that had only allowed 76 in its 6 previous games.

There’s no right answer to this one – so I opened up Excel and used the random number generator to give me a decimal between 0 and 1. If it was 0-.50, I was going to pick the Pats. If it was .51-1, I was going with the Colts.

The number: 0.862662 – so Peyton and the Colts it is.

Seahawks (-7.5) over Raiders

  • Reasons to pick the Seahawks: Seattle is a tough place to play. Oakland has no offense to speak of and Art Shell is still coaching the Black and Silver.
  • Reasons to pick daRaidaz: Seattle has no running back to speak of, a guy named Seneca taking the snaps, and lost a heartbreaker last week.

I think Seattle’s home field and D give them the win. Hoping they cover…

Eller’s Picks:

Chiefs (+3) over Rams
Ravens (-3) over Bengals
Giants (-13) over Texans
Jags (-9.5) over Titans
Cowboys (-3) over Redskins
Packers (+3) over Bills
Saints (-1) over Bucs
Falcons (-5.5) over Lions
Bears (-13.5) over Dolphins
Vikings (-5) over 49ers
Chargers (-12.5) over Browns
Broncos (+2.5) over Steelers
Pats (-3) over Colts
Seahawks (-7.5) over Raiders


One Response to Friday NFL Picks: Week 9

  1. ellis says:

    StL -2
    Bal -3 Don’t bet against an angry Ray Lewis. Even if he doesn’t look angry, he is.
    NYG -13
    Ten +9.5
    Dal -3
    GB +3
    TB +1
    Atl -5.5
    Chi -13.5
    Min -4.5
    SD -12.5
    Den +2.5
    Ind +3
    Sea -7

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